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Statistic 1: Congress is not as bad as it looks !

December 14, 2013

What would you answer if I ask you what is the support of Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly Elections of 2013 ?  Did you think of 28 seats that AAP has won...

 

We all know that Congress has managed to win 8 seats out of 70 in the Delhi Assembly elections, making its share as 12% (8/70) in terms of number of seats in Delhi. In the below chart, you can see that BJP has 44% and AAP has 40% seat share in the Delhi constituency.

Chart1: Share of Seats

 

Hence, the answer to my first question may be 40%. But, the real story may be bigger than this…

Do you know how many votes were casted in the Delhi elections ? It is 78 lakhs votes! To be precise it is 78,74,115 votes ! Now as per the above mentioned 12% share of seats for Congress, the number of votes for Congress should be 12% of 78 lakhs votes which is 9 lakhs. But, instead Congress has actually received 19 lakhs votes. To put all these numbers in perspective, following is the vote share chart for each party.

Chart2: Share of Votes (votes in lakhs)

 

Suddenly, the 84% seat share of BJP and AAP has reduced to 62% vote share. So if the question is what percentage of voters in Delhi are supporting AAP ? Then the correct answer is 29%!

To conclude, Congress has got lot of votes but those votes have not materialized into victorious seats, making Congress look a much bigger loser than what it really is. And on the other hand, with a slightly larger voter share AAP has converted much more seats into victory. Clearly the strategy of AAP has been much better laid out than Congress or BJP.

In next study we will try to predict what will happen if Arvind Kejriwal decides to contest Lok Sabha Elections ?

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Or alternatively put, AAP-Cong has support from 54% of the voters, which is a simple majority, not only in seat share but also vote share.

54% of AAP+Congress vote share is indeed very close to their seat share of (36/70) 51.4%



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