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Text Analytics of Narendra Modi's First Independence Day Speech: Word Cloud

October 30, 2014

#ModiSpeech trended for almost 2 days as top Indian Twitter Trend. Making it one of the longest top Twitter trending topic in India. Clearly, Narendra Modi's first Independence Day Speech left a lasting impression in the minds of all Indians. First Indian Prime minister born in post independence era indeed had a powerful impact. His speech was more forward looking and intense rather than dwelling on the past. I have carried out detailed analysis of the words mentioned in his speech.

As seen in the Word Cloud below, our COUNTRY is the number one priority and is mentioned maximum number of times in the speech. He also refers all of us as BROTHERS and SISTERS several times in his speech probably to ensure that the connect is not lost and we feel as a part of his family. The speech was also quite forward looking emphasising on models of development, importance of YOUTH in our society with action-oriented words like COME, MOVE, WORK etc. He ensured that PEOPLE feel deeply connected to our country and come together for its development rather than leaving everything on the GOVERNMENT babu's. Overall the speech was forward looking, action oriented and deeply connected to the issues of common man !

About Text Analytics

The source of full text version of speech is from Narendra Modi's website. The common language words like "a", "the", "with" have been excluded from the analysis. Bigger the size of the word in the "word cloud" above, larger is the frequency of that word in the overall speech. 

True Stars of Kick Movie Review | Twitter Sentiment Analysis | Infographic

July 27, 2014

Does the rating stars given by Critics really matter ?! Are they 'TRUE' reviews or biased by the stardom of movie actors ?

The review that actually matters is given to me by my friend who has actually seen the movie. Her words count much more than any rating stars given by movie critics. Now the best way to know a movie rating is to go around asking all my friends about their movie review. But that might just be an overkill. So until then, I decided to listen to tweets of real people for a Twitter Sentiment analysis about the Kick Movie Review

Below are the Two-Part series of Infographics presenting the True Ratings Stars for Kick Movie Review

Infographic #1: Kick is rated 3.8 stars on a 5-point scale

 

Infographic #2: Salman Khan is partly the reason for praise and mostly the reason for criticism in Kick Movie

 

 

Inflation in your Valentine Expense !

February 9, 2014

On 2014's Valentine's Day, your special Rose is going to be most expensive that ever ! Checkout the cool Infographic explaining how rose prices inflate every valentine month and this time prices shall be higher than ever...

 

#TrueInflation : The actual Inflation that hits you !

January 16, 2014

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants to reduce Retail Inflation to 4%. RBI wants to include inflation as a benchmark in Monetary Policy. In this era of mysteriously high inflation, we should know what is the true inflation impacting us ? Know your #TrueInflation... 

The typical inflation metrics that we hear everyday in India are WPI and CPI. From WPI and CPI figures, we have to estimate how our cost of living is changing. But, did you ever wonder what is the actual inflation that hits us ? Lets call this actual inflation affecting us as #TrueInflation

#TrueInflation can provide a much realistic clarity on how our cost of living is changing each day ? #TrueInflation can act as an important benchmark for annual increments at your day job in India.

 

Before, I get to estimating #TrueInflation, lets take a minute to understand how inflation is calculated ?

Inflation in India is made up of a basket of commodities whose prices are tracked on a monthly basis. Every commodity has a weight to the overall inflation basket. Take for example ‘Potato’ has a weight of 0.20% in the overall inflation basket and ‘Pig Iron’ has a weight of 0.39%.

Now, when the prices of commodities move, the overall inflation index is adjusted to the extent of weights of the commodities. So, if potato price has increased from Rs. 20/Kg to Rs. 24/Kg, then the price increase of potato [(24-20)/20] = 20% is multiplied with its weight 0.20%, making the net impact on overall inflation as 20% * 0.20% = 0.04%. Whereas if the price of pig iron has increased from Rs. 20,000/MT to Rs. 25,500/MT, the net impact on overall inflation will be 0.11%.

 

The point here is that the current inflation metrics (WPI or CPI) are representation of price movements in economy at large. These metrics fail to represent the specific inflation impact to any class of society or individual. Clearly a person working as ‘bank officer in a private bank’ will not be affected by the price change of 'pig iron'. Hence, the weights to compute #TrueInflation need to be customized as per an individuals spending pattern.

To be able to compute #TrueInflation we will need to understand which commodities affect our daily life. I am planning to create a #TrueInflation Calculator & Tracker, which will be customizable depending upon anyone’s lifestyle. But, for now lets take the example of bank officer.

I have tried to list down her monthly expenses. Some of the expenses are done on a longer horizon, which are brought down to monthly level. Below table describes the her monthly expense pattern

Expense Category

Monthly Expense Amount (in Rs.)

Grocery - Food Items

 5,000

Grocery - Non Food Items (Toothpaste, Shampoo, Perfumes etc.)

 5,000

Clothes & Shoes (12000 once every 6 months)

 2,000

Partying / Restaurants / Bars

 5,000

Holiday (Hotels+Flights; 24000 once an year)

 2,000

Utility Bills (Phone / Electricity / LPG)

 2,500

Computer Electronics (Laptop / Smartphone; 48000 once every 3 years)

 1,333

Home Electronics (AC / Fridge / TV etc.; 36000 once every 3 years)

 1,000

Medicines

 600

Jewellery (36000 once a year)

 3,000

Fuel (Diesel)

 4,000

 

Given the above expense pattern, the #TrueInflation she would have faced in December 2013 would have been 4.89% y-o-y. This inflation is relatively much lower compared to the reported 6.16% of WPI and 9.87% of CPI for December 2013. This is because the prices of her usage items have dropped more significantly than rest of the items in large WPI / CPI basket. Below graphic shows a chart of how #TrueInflation has moved compared to WPI & CPI over last 4 years.

 

 

It is evident that there is vast variation in WPI / CPI and #TrueInflation. And noway we can correlate these three. For the last 4 years, WPI and CPI have averaged (CAGR) 7.66% and 9.24% respectively. #TrueInflation for her has averaged at 10.52% for last 4 years. So, if her annual salary increment at her day job had been more than 10.52%, then she is in-money, else her expenses are becoming dearer faster than her increment. Another point of view: typical Fixed Deposit rates in India hover between 9%-10%. So, if she had parked her funds in FD over last four years, then instead of a wealth build-up, actually her wealth had deteriorated. Hence, it is very important to know whats the #TrueInflation hitting us !

Data has been collected from Government of India's published commodities price information

Statistic 2: AAP is people’s choice for lack of options

December 15, 2013

The day after results of Delhi Elections news channels were flooded with Arvind Kejriwal saying “People wanted an alternative and that is what they found in us”. He indeed is correct in saying that, AAP is the alternative for lack of options !

 

If we break Delhi’s constituencies by the number of candidates contested in each constituency, then we can categorize Delhi as:

Less than 8 candidates contested   : 10 constituencies

8-11 candidates contested                  : 29 constituencies

More than 11 candidates contested : 31 constituencies

 

Now refer the following chart to see how each party has faired in each of these categorized constituencies

 

How to read: Height of line denotes number of wins for that party in that category. Eg: AAP has 8 wins in ‘Less than 8 candidates category’ and BJP has 15 wins in ‘More than 11 candidates category’.

 

Clearly, constituencies where 'less than 8 candidates contested' (hence lesser options) have worked in favour of AAP. As the competition increases, winning streak of AAP reduces and BJP starts to emerge as a more acceptable party. Congress on the other hand has not been able to leave any mark on the map.

Thus, AAP is the choice for lack of options; But, BJP has been able to win over strong competition.

Statistic 1: Congress is not as bad as it looks !

December 14, 2013

What would you answer if I ask you what is the support of Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi Assembly Elections of 2013 ?  Did you think of 28 seats that AAP has won...

 

We all know that Congress has managed to win 8 seats out of 70 in the Delhi Assembly elections, making its share as 12% (8/70) in terms of number of seats in Delhi. In the below chart, you can see that BJP has 44% and AAP has 40% seat share in the Delhi constituency.

Chart1: Share of Seats

 

Hence, the answer to my first question may be 40%. But, the real story may be bigger than this…

Do you know how many votes were casted in the Delhi elections ? It is 78 lakhs votes! To be precise it is 78,74,115 votes ! Now as per the above mentioned 12% share of seats for Congress, the number of votes for Congress should be 12% of 78 lakhs votes which is 9 lakhs. But, instead Congress has actually received 19 lakhs votes. To put all these numbers in perspective, following is the vote share chart for each party.

Chart2: Share of Votes (votes in lakhs)

 

Suddenly, the 84% seat share of BJP and AAP has reduced to 62% vote share. So if the question is what percentage of voters in Delhi are supporting AAP ? Then the correct answer is 29%!

To conclude, Congress has got lot of votes but those votes have not materialized into victorious seats, making Congress look a much bigger loser than what it really is. And on the other hand, with a slightly larger voter share AAP has converted much more seats into victory. Clearly the strategy of AAP has been much better laid out than Congress or BJP.

In next study we will try to predict what will happen if Arvind Kejriwal decides to contest Lok Sabha Elections ?